Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Source Article from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
Immigration action jolts '16 races
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/rss?p=immigration
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results

Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Source Article from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
Immigration action jolts '16 races
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/rss?p=immigration
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results

Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Source Article from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
Immigration action jolts '16 races
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/rss?p=immigration
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results

Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Source Article from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
Immigration action jolts '16 races
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/228021-immigration-action-jolts-2016-races
http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/rss?p=immigration
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results
immigration – Yahoo News Search Results

Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

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Immigration action jolts '16 races

President Obama’s recent overhaul of his deportation rules has electrified the largely partisan debate over immigration policy heading into the next Congress. 

The politics surrounding the unilateral action could reverberate for years to come, as both conservatives and liberals have taken the move as a call to action that could affect congressional races in 2016 and beyond.

On the right, the move has energized the Republicans’ conservative base and led to vows from GOP leaders to move their own immigration reforms — including efforts to derail Obama’s executive order — in the next Congress, when they’ll control both chambers.

“We have a responsibility to start moving serious legislation ourselves,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told The Hill this month. 

On the left, Democrats are equally invigorated, viewing the White House action as evidence that Obama is ready to use the final two years of his presidency to push promised reforms.

Many Democrats were up in arms that Obama decided to delay his deportation order until after the elections — a delay they say alienated Hispanic voters and contributed to Democratic losses in several swing districts.

In the wake of the executive action — which will halt deportations and make work permits available for as many as 5 million people living in the country illegally — the Democrats like their chances of taking back those seats amid a fight for the White House when many more voters, Hispanic and otherwise, are expected to participate. 

“The turnout is going to be huge,” one Democratic aide predicted Tuesday.

In a number of Senate and state-house races, Republicans made gains among Latino voters this year. But in House races, Hispanics sided 62 percent with the Democrats versus 36 percent who voted Republican — roughly the same split that governed the 2010 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center.

Heading into 2016, much will depend on the Republicans’ legislative response to Obama’s deportation policies.

GOP leaders in both chambers face heavy pressure from conservatives in and out of Congress to undo the more lenient rules and focus on tougher enforcement efforts targeting anyone in the country illegally.

But embracing a hard line could also scare off the growing Hispanic vote — currently representing 11 percent of the electorate — and shift that support back to 2012 levels, when Obama won over 71 percent of Hispanics.

“The question is: How are Republicans going to conduct themselves between now and then?” said the Democratic aide. “Are they going to realize that opposing immigration reform is not a winning strategy?”

Here are several tough-fought districts where Obama’s deportation policies could play an outsized role in 2016.

• Florida-26: Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) last month in this south Florida district, where more than 62 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — among the highest percentages in the country.

Both contenders ran in strong support of comprehensive immigration reform, with Curbelo flipping national politics on its head by blaming Obama for not fighting hard enough to get it done. Garcia, for his part, minced no words in condemning Obama’s delay on executive action.

A wildcard here could be Obama’s new Cuba policies, as more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban descent. But Obama won the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2012. And with the new deportation policies in effect, Democrats are hoping 2016 will shift the seat back to their side.

• Arizona-2: In the closest race of the 2014 cycle, Republican Martha McSally defeated freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the drawn out fight for this border district in southeastern Arizona, where roughly one-in-five eligible voters is Hispanic.

McSally ran on a platform that emphasized border security and was a fervent critic of the Senate-passed immigration package, which she characterized as the “ObamaCare of immigration reform.” She has also criticized the Dream Act and defended a controversial state law that empowered local law enforcers to check the immigration status of those they stop or arrest.

McSally’s razor-thin margin of victory — she won by just 179 votes — has fueled Democratic hopes that they can retake the seat in 2016. But Obama’s pre-election vow to act unilaterally on deportations put Barber in a tough spot in a state known for its strict approach to immigration enforcement. The next Democratic candidate could face similar hurdles now that the policy is in effect.

• Nevada-4: Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford (D) suffered a surprise loss to GOP challenger Cresent Hardy for control of this expansive central-Nevada district where more than 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Hardy embraced eventual citizenship benefits for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and was open to providing a pathway to legalization for the older population, though “not necessarily to citizenship.” Hardy has also rejected Obama’s comprehensive approach to immigration reform, backing a piecemeal approach.

Obama won the district in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, and Horsford hasn’t ruled out a rematch in 2016.

• California-26: Freshman Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley won a second term last month in a squeaker that was decided by less than 2,400 votes.

Brownley’s challenger, Republican Jeff Gorell, was both a vocal supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and an unapologetic critic of the GOP’s resistance to a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. “Republicans,” he said after the election, “must make a policy paradigm shift that is consistent with the bold origins and values of our party.”

The large Hispanic population in this coastal district — almost 31 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic — ensures that the Republicans will likely need to field a candidate with similarly centrist immigration views if they hope to unseat Brownley in 2016.

• Colorado-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) won a fourth term last month with 52 percent of the vote in this eastern suburb of Denver, where more than 12 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

Coffman has opposed citizenship benefits for adults and pushed hard for tougher border-security measures. But he also favors legalization steps, took great strides to reach out to Latino voters, including a recent effort to learn the Spanish language, and voted this month against a GOP proposal to undo Obama’s executive action. His opponent, Democrat Andrew Romanoff, provided Coffman some cover on the thorny issue because of past positions deemed unfriendly to immigrants, including the repeal of mandated multi-lingual ballots.

Redistricting in 2011 made this formerly conservative district much more competitive, and Obama won it in 2012 with almost 53 percent of the vote. 

• Texas-23: Freshman Rep. Pete Gallego (D) lost his reelection bid last month to GOP challenger Will Hurd in this huge district in West Texas that borders Mexico for roughly 800 miles.

Hurd, a former CIA agent, bucked the conventional wisdom by taking a relatively hard line on immigration in a district where 61 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, a vast majority of Mexican descent. He supports certain legalization benefits but opposes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Obama lost the district in 2012 by a margin of 48 to 51. But Hurd’s victory was slight (2.1 percent), and Democrats are hoping the president’s executive action will help flip the seat back to their side two years from now.

• Arizona-1: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won a third term in the tough-fought contest for control of this northeastern Arizona district. But, like that of Barber, her campaign was complicated by Obama’s promise of executive action.

“Arizona has suffered from federal inaction to fix our broken immigration system,” Kirkpatrick said on the trail. “But executive action can’t fix it.”

Kirkpatrick’s GOP challenger, Andy Tobin, took an even tougher line on immigration reform. Tobin blamed Obama’s deferred action for the migrant crisis and called for the National Guard to line the border. He also raised concerns that the migrants might bring Ebola into the country, and he ran campaign ads warning that Kirkpatrick’s positions on border security make it easier for Islamic State terrorists to cross into Arizona.

Mitt Romney took this district with 50 percent of the vote in 2012, but Tobin didn’t fare as well: Kirkpatrick won by 5 percentage points in a district where roughly 16 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic.

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Ariz. sheriff aims to halt Obama immigration order

WASHINGTON (AP) — A gadfly attorney and an Arizona county sheriff want to halt President Barack Obama’s immigration order in the first courtroom battle over an initiative designed to spare nearly 5 million people from deportation.

On Monday, lawyer Larry Klayman will try to convince a judge nominated by Obama that the immigration system isn’t really broken — contrary to what the president says.

Klayman and his client, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, say the president violated the Constitution by doing an end-run around Congress and say drastic changes in immigration programs should be stopped.

“President Obama and others recite that the immigration system of the United States is broken,” Klayman wrote in a court filing. “It is unmistakable that the only thing that is broken about the nation’s immigration laws is that the defendants are determined to break those laws.”

The case is being handled by U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell, former general counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee and an Obama nominee.

Klayman is a conservative who has previously targeted the president, alleging that Obama falsely claimed U.S. citizenship. In October, Klayman petitioned the Homeland Security Department to start deportation proceedings against Obama.

Under the immigration program, the Homeland Security Department would prioritize the removal of immigrants who present threats to national security, public safety or border security. DHS officials could deport someone if an Immigration and Customs Enforcement field office director determined that removing the person would serve an important federal interest.

In the lawsuit, Klayman and Arpaio portray the administration’s policy change as a way for more people to enter the country illegally and commit crimes, adding to the burden of law enforcement.

“This theory is speculative and unsubstantiated,” the Justice Department argued in its own court filing. Obama’s program places greater emphasis on removing criminal aliens and recent border crossers, the government countered.

Among the evidence in the case is a set of Arpaio press releases and letters to Homeland Security officials that say more than 35 percent of immigrants living in Maricopa County illegally who wound up in Arpaio’s jails in 2014 were repeat offenders, signifying in the sheriff’s view that DHS has done a poor job of deporting criminals.

Jennifer D. Elzea, a spokesperson for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, says that as a matter of policy, ICE does not comment on pending litigation.

ICE, a DHS agency, can and does release immigrants who have been arrested on criminal charges, including those who have yet to be convicted, for a variety of reasons. In some instances, immigrants are released from immigration jails because they are from countries that won’t provide travel documents or otherwise are not likely to be deported within a reasonable time.

___

Associated Press writer Alicia A. Caldwell contributed to this report.

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Our ‘Broken’ Immigration System: A Game of Winners and Losers

There are few defenders of America’s immigration system, but people mean different things by calling it “broken.” For some, including those here illegally, it means that America does not admit enough immigrants legally and quickly.

For others, the system broke when it allowed around 11 million people to overstay visitor visas or cross the border without inspection and work unchallenged for many years. At the current rate (400,000 a year), it would take over 30 years to deport them – assuming that no replacements arrived.

Some consider enforcing immigration law cruel in that it divides families by deporting undocumented immigrants, but the assertion presupposes that the only proper place for an extended family with even one American citizen resident is in America, rather than in the country where the majority reside. Taking the moral high ground in a Washington Post Op-Ed , Harold Meyerson calls on Congress to “stop the stupidity, the lack of humanity,” and not to mistake a numerical problem for a moral one.

Related: A Long Wait at the Back of the Immigration Line

We can accept the idea that the vast majority of undocumented immigrants are coming here intending to work hard, pay taxes, and follow the (non-immigration) rules without believing that this is all anyone needs to be allowed to stay. The crux of the immigration policy debate is about quantity; there are so many would-be Americans in the world who would potentially make just as good citizens as any of us that quality is not the issue. Burgeoning populations, limited economic opportunities, wars, poor governance, and other ‘push’ factors abroad are going to get worse before they get better.

The current definition of immigration ‘reform’ seems to mean a stay on enforcement or amnesty, combined with a tightening of borders, greater workplace enforcement, and higher overall annual immigrant numbers allowed. The question is, how high? Although there are definite inefficiencies and capacity shortfalls slowing the processing of cases, the ‘broken immigration system’ is essentially a problem of demand for immigrant status, which is unlimited and growing, and supply, which Congress limits to about a million a year. (Around 70 percent go to relatives of U.S. citizens, 15 percent to employment-based categories; and the remaining 15 percent to miscellaneous categories including refugees).

It is impossible to ‘clear the immigration backlog,’ or fix a ‘broken’ system, unless by this you mean letting in as many people as want to come. With apologies to Emma Lazarus, the days when anyone could move to the United States at will have been gone since the Johnson-Reed Act of 1921 (or the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882). Even if DHS were to process to conclusion all the currently ‘backlogged’ cases waiting to be naturalized, history shows that they would all be more than replaced by additional petitions from those new citizens for their own relatives.

Few would argue that it is possible, even if it were moral, to deport the over 11 million people living here illegally; but in making policy we have to keep in mind not just the hardship families endure as a result of their understandable desire to better themselves and their children, but also the long-term implications of any “fix.”  A stay of deportation and path to citizenship for today’s undocumented will leave others clamoring for the same chance.

Related: Americans Conflicted Over Obama’s Immigration Order

The class of those ‘left out’ is vast–there are the undocumented parents of ‘Dreamers,’ but what about their siblings?  Uncles and aunts? Grandparents?  What of the immediate or extended families of the 50,000 children sent here last summer to escape poverty and violence in Central America? Since immediate families (spouses, children) of American citizens take precedence from other categories under the overall annual cap, what effect would a ‘path to citizenship’ for undocumented residents have on Mexican-Americans who filed petitions for their siblings in 1997, which are only now becoming current, or Philippino-Americans whose brothers and sisters have been waiting since 1991?

Congress could add to the annual cap of 65,000 visas available for siblings under “family unification,” or give more visas to any one class, but they would have to come out of another’s pot. Assuming demand is inexhaustible, should Congress raise the overall cap for family reunification to even them up with the newly-legalized?  Should they take those numbers at the expense of employment categories for which Silicon Valley and employer interests have been lobbying fiercely? Or simply raise total annual immigrant numbers to two million, or five, or ten? What is the maximum annual capacity of the United States to absorb immigrants?

These are tough questions, and ones best looked at in the aggregate rather than the specific. One cannot condemn people for trying to improve their lives. To paraphrase Churchill, anyone observing a single immigration case should be a natural liberal; anyone observing the system as a whole becomes a conservative. Still, however sympathetic individual cases or classes, there are no easy policy answers; ‘fixing’ today’s apparent inequity is going to generate other inequities (and no doubt encourage more immigrants without documents to try their luck in future). It’s economics 101: when you have unlimited supply and limited demand, someone is going to lose out; the policy question is, who.

“Simon Hankinson is an MA candidate in International Security Affairs at the National Defense University. The views expressed are his own and not necessarily those of the State Department or the U.S. Government.”

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Immigration minister promoted in Australia cabinet reshuffle

Australia’s Immigration Minister Scott Morrison was Sunday chosen to head up the social services ministry in a major cabinet reshuffle, a move widely seen as a promotion following his handling of controversial asylum-seeker policies.

Defence Minister David Johnston, under fire for saying last month that a government shipbuilding firm could not be trusted to “build a canoe”, was dumped from the front bench.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the reshuffle would “reset and refocus” his government for 2015, following a challenging year that has seen it lose support in opinion polls amid community disquiet over a tough cost-cutting budget.

He told reporters in Canberra the changes were a signal that his government “wants the economy and the budget to be front and centre in the coming year”.

“In the end, nothing is achieved without a strong economy.”

Abbott had tried to rein in a federal deficit forecast to balloon to Aus$40.4 billion (US$33.2 billion) this financial year according to government figures released last week, while boosting the flagging economy which is struggling to move away from mining-led growth.

The prime minister praised Morrison, who has been tipped by some commentators as a future leader of the conservative Liberal Party.

“Not only is he a splendid advocate but he is the master of difficult policy and administration, as he has abundantly demonstrated in all but stopping the boats over the last 15 months,” Abbott said.

Under Canberra’s tough immigration policy, asylum-seekers arriving by boat are transferred to offshore camps for processing. Even if their refugee applications are successful, they will only be permanently resettled outside Australia.

Only one boat has reached the Australian mainland since December, compared to almost daily arrivals under the previous Labor administration.

Health Minister Peter Dutton will move to immigration, while Assistant Education Minister Sussan Ley will double the number of women in cabinet with her assumption of the health and sport portfolios.

Kevin Andrews, whom Abbott said was a “very safe pair of hands”, was moved from social services to defence. He had previously served as minister in the ageing, employment and immigration portfolios under the Howard government from 2001 to 2007.

The reshuffle followed the resignation Friday of Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos, Howard’s former chief of staff, who had already stood aside from his post earlier in the year for the duration of a New South Wales state corruption inquiry.

He was replaced in his role by rising star Josh Frydenberg, Abbott’s parliamentary secretary.

Acting Labor opposition leader and senator Penny Wong said the reshuffle did not signal a change to the government’s policies.

“It is a vote of no confidence in the PM’s cabinet,” Wong told reporters.

“You don’t need to have this extensive a reshuffle if your cabinet is performing well.”

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Immigration advocates shift to defense

Predicting little progress on immigration reform in the next Congress, some of the nation’s top advocates say they’re shifting gears to focus on defending President Obama’s new deportation policy from GOP attacks.

“We’re not looking to Congress for relief in the next two years,” Frank Sharry, head of America’s Voice, an advocacy group, said Thursday during a breakfast at the Mayflower Hotel in downtown Washington. “We’re looking to defend the win that we’ve had, and to set the stage to expand on that win.”

Republican leaders in both chambers say they’re poised to act on immigration policy next year by breaking out certain provisions of a Senate-passed comprehensive reform bill — including efforts to bolster border security and interior enforcement — in hopes of sending them to President Obama’s desk.

But Obama and the Democrats are largely opposed to that strategy for fear that passing the popular provisions as stand-alone bills would doom the more controversial elements, particularly the legalization and citizenship benefits for millions of immigrants living in the country illegally.

“What we don’t want to do is simply carve out one piece of it … but leave behind some of the tougher stuff that still needs to get done,” Obama said last year.

That partisan conflict, the liberal advocates say, sets the stage for yet another two-year impasse on the thorny issue of reform policy. 

“I don’t think that there’s any chance of comprehensive immigration reform this Congress,” said Marshall Fitz, an immigration expert at the liberal Center for American Progress.

With those dynamics in mind, liberal reform advocates say their focus is shifting to the implementation and defense of Obama’s new deportation policy, rather than expectations of bold congressional action.

“That’s going to be the movement’s priority. It is in the interest of our community to make this program a success,” said Cristina Jimenez, managing director of United We Dream, another group pushing for comprehensive reform. 

“Republicans have a self-interest, politically, to work on it [comprehensive reform],” she added. “We just don’t see how they get their party together to actually provide a viable solution.”

In the absence of congressional action, Obama last month adopted new rules that will halt deportations and grant work permits to as many as 5 million illegal immigrants. The move outraged Republicans, who are searching for legislative ways to dismantle the program.

The GOP’s anger over Obama’s unilateral action complicates the debate for Republican leaders, according to the liberal reform advocates, because conservatives in both chambers — figures like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) — will likely fight to attach amendments undoing the executive action to any immigration-related bills that hit the floor.

Such amendments would almost certainly lead to an Obama veto, thereby reducing the odds that Congress will make progress on immigration reform before the 2016 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the advocates say, the administration is going to need all the help it can get installing the new deportation rules and getting people to participate.

“This is a huge undertaking,” Fitz said. “They’re going to be trying to implement this when they’re getting zero support from Congress, no appropriations, and they’re under a withering attack from the appropriators and the Republican leadership. So I think that they’re going to have more than enough to do and focus on in terms of making this a reality.”

Leading Republicans on and off Capitol Hill, meanwhile, are pushing their piecemeal approach to immigration in hopes of sending focused bills to Obama.

Included in their wish-list are proposals to strengthen border security, expand visas for high-tech workers, streamline a guest-worker program on the nation’s farms, establish a mandatory E-Verify system for businesses and create an exit-visa registry to rein in overstays.

“I would bust it up if I were setting the agenda in the Senate, start with border security, H-1B visa expansion, H-2A ag worker provisions, E–Verify and some of the other things I think we can get pretty broad agreement on,” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the incoming majority leader, said earlier this month.

Republican activist Grover Norquist, who is pushing the GOP to adopt the piecemeal approach next year, said Obama would have a tough time vetoing bills that reach his desk with bipartisan support.

“It’s a losing issue for the Democrats if the Republicans just take this step-by-step,” Norquist said last month.

But the liberal reformers, while not opposed to that strategy per se, are quick to warn that it’s destined to fail if legalization and citizenship proposals are not included — provisions that have almost no chance of passing as stand-alone measures with Republicans controlling both chambers.

“We’re not against pieces moving. We’re against pieces moving without balance,” Sharry said. “By balance, I mean enforcement and legalization.”

Sharry said liberal advocates would have a difficult time opposing such a package, but he also predicted that conservative pressure on Republican leaders would prevent a “balanced” proposal from ever reaching the president’s desk.

“That would make it much more challenging for us to say no to, at that point, if it’s balanced,” Sharry said. “[But] the idea that the Republicans are going to be smart about legislating on immigration — and do so in a balanced fashion — that’s our dream, but I don’t see it happening.”

Fitz said advocates expect Republicans to use a number of tools — including more lawsuits, budget fights and threats of a partial government shutdown — to undo the new deportation policy. But he also predicted those efforts, while energizing each party’s base, will fail.

“There’s really very little that they can do,” Fitz said. “They have no legislative end-game here; there is none. … There’s going to be a lot of noise, but … at the end of the day I don’t think they’ve got a viable strategy to block this.”

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