Immigration activists hope they don't get burned by Obama

Washington (CNN) — House Speaker John Boehner said President Barack Obama could get “burned” if he uses executive action to help undocumented immigrants.

There are a good number of immigration activists who feel burned that he hasn’t done it already.

While they were pleased to hear Obama renew his vow Wednesday that despite Republicans’ takeover of the Senate he still intends to use his executive authority to help fix the nation’s broken immigration system, the message from immigrants’ rights groups to the White House remains the same: They’ll believe it when they see it.

Obama immigration remarks ‘declaration of war’

Boehner to Obama: Don’t Poison the Well

Advocates of immigration reform want the president to provide deportation relief to millions of undocumented immigrants since Congress has so far failed to pass a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws. It is hard to believe that a new Republican Senate and emboldened Republican majority in the House are likely to pass a bill that would pass muster with immigration activists.

That leaves Obama and his promised executive action as immigration activists’ only hope. They hope he’ll keep his word.

After promising on June 30 to announce the so-called executive actions he would take by summer’s end, the White House delayed the move until after the mid-term election. Activists say they are tired of waiting and are planning a series of rallies, marches, conferences and other events to urge the president not to allow politics to delay action.

“Details matter and promises have been made before,” said Cristina Jimenez, managing director for immigrants’ rights group United We Dream. “Our campaign to protect our communities will continue until the policy is changed in a way that includes our parents, families and neighbors.”

At risk is not just the president’s standing with the Latino community. Activists say this is an issue for all Democrats — including potential 2016 candidates — who some believe have taken Latino voters for granted. In a November poll by Latino Decisions, two-thirds of Latino voters said immigration was either the most important or one of the most important issues driving their vote this year and 60 percent of Latino registered voters who were not planning to vote said the delay in executive action made them less enthusiastic about the president and the Democratic Party. An October survey by Pew Research found that 55 percent of Latino registered voters disapproved of the way the Obama administration has handled the issue of deportations.

“The president’s legacy is at stake,” said Marielena Hincapie, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center.

Hispanic members of Congress who support reform point to the 2 million people deported during the Obama administration as they make their case for swift, expansive action. The president — who has frequently been called the “Deporter in Chief” by immigrant groups — used a Congressional Hispanic Caucus gala in September to repeat his promise to act before year’s end. He again reiterated that promise at a post election press conference on Wednesday, just moments after incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned that doing so would poison the well with the new Republican controlled Congress.

Grassroots immigration anger

Obama: GOP imn. stance political suicide

Still, some advocates are skeptical.

“There is nothing until there is something,” said Marisa Franco, the lead organizer of the National Day Labor Organizing Network’s (NDLON) #Not1More campaign against deportations. “We’re not going to stop the pressure until we see the president follow through.”

And at least one former top Obama adviser urged the President to hold off on executive action in exchange for an up or down vote in the House.

“POTUS should agree to shelve exec order for up or down vote in House,” Axelrod said on Twitter on Thursday.

Immigrant groups say “go big”

Several advocates who have been part of discussions with the administration, believe the president will use the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program he announced in 2012 as a model for future action. DACA allows immigrants brought here illegally as children to stay without fear of deportation and apply for work permits if they meet certain criteria.

The president could expand this relief to potentially millions more people. Many supporters want the president to “go big” with a move that would include everyone who would have been allowed to stay in the United States under the bill the Senate passed in June 2013. That would mean an estimated 6 million to 9 million people could qualify.

“What they actually announce and who they decide to protect is not entirely clear at the moment, but what is clear is that the expectations are high,” said Katy Green, a spokesperson for the advocacy group America’s Voice.

Advocates taking action

Activists are planning to protest in front of the White House on Friday to drive that point home.

Peña Nieto on the U.S. immigration debate

W.H.: Obama committed to bipartisanship

“It’s just the beginning,” said Gustavo Torres, president of Maryland group CASA in Action and co-chair of the national Fair Immigration Reform Movement (FIRM), at a press conference with other activists on Thursday, adding that more events are planned around Thanksgiving, including a hunger strike.

Immigrant rights groups have been slowly ramping up pressure on the president. The Friday before Election Day, some two dozen United We Dream activists hailing from as far south as Florida and as far north as Massachusetts descended on the intersection opposite the White House.

For half an hour they sat on the pavement amidst a cacophony of honking horns holding giant pictures of loved ones in danger of being deported. Some marched in circles chanting: No Justice, No Peace. Members of the same group interrupted the president repeatedly during a campaign stop in Bridgeport, CT days later — including one who was wearing a t-shirt that said “Obama Deports Parents” — and heckled potential presidential candidate-in-waiting Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally in Maryland earlier in the week.

Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Illinois, long an outspoken advocate for executive action,has already set up a “Getting Ready for Administrative Action” website with advice to help prepare undocumented immigrants for the president’s announcement. It includes suggestions for the types of documentation immigrants can begin gathering to prove they qualify, once a plan is announced.

The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles (CHIRLA) held a rally in Los Angeles Wednesday with community based organizations and labor unions to urge action now that the election is over. The group will host an immigration conference next month.

Boehner: We will move to repeal Obamacare

Wolf delves deep into politics, Mideast

“Our hope is always that by Thanksgiving, people would sit around the dinner table giving thanks for the administrative relief– and that by Christmas we will have no more separated families,” said CHIRLA’s Executive Director Angelica Salas.

NDLON is planning a demonstration next week outside the Department of Homeland Security by people directly affected by deportations.

The groups’ plans go beyond pressuring the president. They also want to use rallies as well as Twitter and Facebook to make a case to the American public that bringing the undocumented out of the shadows is good for the economy and say it’s also important to deliver that message to Congress, since only lawmakers can find a permanent solution to the broken immigration system.

“The best way to get that legislative outcome is for the president to put a marker down and let the Republicans respond,” said Janet Murguía, the president and CEO of the National Council of La Raza. “If they disagree, let them put their best foot forward on immigration reform and let’s see what they will do.”


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Immigration activists wary of Obama

Washington (CNN) — House Speaker John Boehner said President Barack Obama could get “burned” if he uses executive action to help undocumented immigrants.

There are a good number of immigration activists who feel burned that he hasn’t done it already.

While they were pleased to hear Obama renew his vow Wednesday that despite Republicans’ takeover of the Senate he still intends to use his executive authority to help fix the nation’s broken immigration system, the message from immigrants’ rights groups to the White House remains the same: They’ll believe it when they see it.

Obama immigration remarks ‘declaration of war’

Boehner to Obama: Don’t Poison the Well

Advocates of immigration reform want the president to provide deportation relief to millions of undocumented immigrants since Congress has so far failed to pass a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws. It is hard to believe that a new Republican Senate and emboldened Republican majority in the House are likely to pass a bill that would pass muster with immigration activists.

That leaves Obama and his promised executive action as immigration activists’ only hope. They hope he’ll keep his word.

After promising on June 30 to announce the so-called executive actions he would take by summer’s end, the White House delayed the move until after the mid-term election. Activists say they are tired of waiting and are planning a series of rallies, marches, conferences and other events to urge the president not to allow politics to delay action.

“Details matter and promises have been made before,” said Cristina Jimenez, managing director for immigrants’ rights group United We Dream. “Our campaign to protect our communities will continue until the policy is changed in a way that includes our parents, families and neighbors.”

At risk is not just the president’s standing with the Latino community. Activists say this is an issue for all Democrats — including potential 2016 candidates — who some believe have taken Latino voters for granted. In a November poll by Latino Decisions, two-thirds of Latino voters said immigration was either the most important or one of the most important issues driving their vote this year and 60 percent of Latino registered voters who were not planning to vote said the delay in executive action made them less enthusiastic about the president and the Democratic Party. An October survey by Pew Research found that 55 percent of Latino registered voters disapproved of the way the Obama administration has handled the issue of deportations.

“The president’s legacy is at stake,” said Marielena Hincapie, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center.

Hispanic members of Congress who support reform point to the 2 million people deported during the Obama administration as they make their case for swift, expansive action. The president — who has frequently been called the “Deporter in Chief” by immigrant groups — used a Congressional Hispanic Caucus gala in September to repeat his promise to act before year’s end. He again reiterated that promise at a post election press conference on Wednesday, just moments after incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned that doing so would poison the well with the new Republican controlled Congress.

Grassroots immigration anger

Obama: GOP imn. stance political suicide

Still, some advocates are skeptical.

“There is nothing until there is something,” said Marisa Franco, the lead organizer of the National Day Labor Organizing Network’s (NDLON) #Not1More campaign against deportations. “We’re not going to stop the pressure until we see the president follow through.”

Immigrant groups say “go big”

Several advocates who have been part of discussions with the administration, believe the president will use the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program he announced in 2012 as a model for future action. DACA allows immigrants brought here illegally as children to stay without fear of deportation and apply for work permits if they meet certain criteria.

The president could expand this relief to potentially millions more people. Many supporters want the president to “go big” with a move that would include everyone who would have been allowed to stay in the United States under the bill the Senate passed in June 2013. That would mean an estimated 6 million to 9 million people could qualify.

“What they actually announce and who they decide to protect is not entirely clear at the moment, but what is clear is that the expectations are high,” said Katy Green, a spokesperson for the advocacy group America’s Voice.

Advocates taking action

Activists are planning to protest in front of the White House on Friday to drive that point home.

Peña Nieto on the U.S. immigration debate

W.H.: Obama committed to bipartisanship

“It’s just the beginning,” said Gustavo Torres, president of Maryland group CASA in Action and co-chair of the national Fair Immigration Reform Movement (FIRM), at a press conference with other activists on Thursday, adding that more events are planned around Thanksgiving, including a hunger strike.

Immigrant rights groups have been slowly ramping up pressure on the president. The Friday before Election Day, some two dozen United We Dream activists hailing from as far south as Florida and as far north as Massachusetts descended on the intersection opposite the White House.

For half an hour they sat on the pavement amidst a cacophony of honking horns holding giant pictures of loved ones in danger of being deported. Some marched in circles chanting: No Justice, No Peace. Members of the same group interrupted the president repeatedly during a campaign stop in Bridgeport, CT days later — including one who was wearing a t-shirt that said “Obama Deports Parents” — and heckled potential presidential candidate-in-waiting Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally in Maryland earlier in the week.

Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Illinois, long an outspoken advocate for executive action,has already set up a “Getting Ready for Administrative Action” website with advice to help prepare undocumented immigrants for the president’s announcement. It includes suggestions for the types of documentation immigrants can begin gathering to prove they qualify, once a plan is announced.

The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles (CHIRLA) held a rally in Los Angeles Wednesday with community based organizations and labor unions to urge action now that the election is over. The group will host an immigration conference next month.

Boehner: We will move to repeal Obamacare

Wolf delves deep into politics, Mideast

“Our hope is always that by Thanksgiving, people would sit around the dinner table giving thanks for the administrative relief– and that by Christmas we will have no more separated families,” said CHIRLA’s Executive Director Angelica Salas.

NDLON is planning a demonstration next week outside the Department of Homeland Security by people directly affected by deportations.

The groups’ plans go beyond pressuring the president. They also want to use rallies as well as Twitter and Facebook to make a case to the American public that bringing the undocumented out of the shadows is good for the economy and say it’s also important to deliver that message to Congress, since only lawmakers can find a permanent solution to the broken immigration system.

“The best way to get that legislative outcome is for the president to put a marker down and let the Republicans respond,” said Janet Murguía, the president and CEO of the National Council of La Raza. “If they disagree, let them put their best foot forward on immigration reform and let’s see what they will do.”


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Immigration activists wary of Obama
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Some Republican fear schism over immigration

WASHINGTON (AP) — With President Barack Obama vowing to press ahead on immigration, prominent Hispanic Republicans are worried about the reaction of staunch conservatives. They fear it will harm the party’s ability to win over Latinos in the next presidential election and beyond.

While immigration was generally a muted issue in elections dominated by the Republicans, Obama promised the next day to move ahead on his own to remove the threat of deportation or grant work permits to an unspecified number of immigrants living here illegally.

“The initial reaction from Republicans is going to be very ugly and not well- thought-out, unfortunately,” said Alfonso Aguilar, former chief of the U.S. Office of Citizenship in the George W. Bush administration and executive director of Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles.

Aguilar said congressional Republicans must offer a plausible alternative to the president’s plan, especially since the Republican- controlled House has shelved bipartisan immigration legislation. His call echoes those of some of the party’s potential 2016 candidates to reach out to Hispanic voters in some way.

But House Republican aides note that Speaker John Boehner and others have no effective way to tone down comments of members who stridently oppose looser immigration rules. Indeed, many of those members are proud to defy party leaders.

Boehner himself likened Obama’s remarks to playing with matches. “He’s going to burn himself if he continues to go down this path,” Boehner said Thursday, a day after Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell warned the president not to act without congressional approval. Such a move, McConnell said, “poisons the well” for potential bipartisan efforts.

A Congress controlled by the Republicans come January “will defend itself and our citizens from these lawless actions,” said Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions.

Aguilar and others are concerned that conservative firebrands will go further in their rhetoric, perhaps by calling for Obama’s impeachment or for mass deportations — creating a political sweet spot for Democrats not long after the Republican triumph at the polls and exposing a rift inside the party just as it assumes control of both chambers.

“Republicans have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot,” said Carlos Gutierrez, a commerce secretary under Bush who led that administration’s failed effort in 2007 to enact comprehensive immigration changes. “The Republicans can overreact and give the impression that they’re not so much against the concept of executive action but that they’re against immigrants. And that would be a big problem.”

Obama faces enormous pressure to act from Latinos, an important part of the Democratic base. Immigrant advocates, labor leaders and others called on the president Thursday to act boldly, and dared Republicans to stand in his way.

Hispanic voters were an important part of Obama’s support in his presidential campaigns and are seen as a crucial voting bloc in the years to come. A Republican Party “autopsy” of the 2012 election made only one policy recommendation: The Republicans should embrace “comprehensive immigration reform.”

That phrase typically means enhancing border security along with addressing the status of the roughly 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.

But many House Republicans, and some senators, owe their elections largely to Republican primary voters who adamantly oppose any form of legalization.

Exit polls of voters in Tuesday’s elections found that while 57 percent of Americans favor offering immigrants living here illegally a chance to apply for legal status, the issue splits along party lines: 78 percent of Democratic voters supported providing a way for immigrants to remain in the country, while 56 percent of Republican voters said they should be deported.

Mitt Romney won just 27 percent of the Latino vote in 2012, the worst performance for a Republican nominee in 16 years. Many Republicans attribute it to his hardline stance on immigration.

___

Associated Press writer Erica Werner contributed from Washington.

___

Follow Charles Babington on Twitter at —https://twitter.com/cbabington and Michael J. Mishak at —https://twitter.com/mjmishak

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Some in GOP fear schism over Obama, immigration

WASHINGTON (AP) — With President Barack Obama vowing to press ahead on immigration, prominent Hispanic Republicans are worried about the reaction of staunch conservatives. They fear it will harm the party’s ability to win over Latinos in the next presidential election and beyond.

While immigration was generally a muted issue in midterm elections dominated by the GOP, Obama promised the next day to move ahead on his own to remove the threat of deportation or grant work permits to an unspecified number of immigrants living here illegally.

“The initial reaction from Republicans is going to be very ugly and not well- thought-out, unfortunately,” said Alfonso Aguilar, former chief of the U.S. Office of Citizenship in the George W. Bush administration and executive director of Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles.

Aguilar said congressional Republicans must offer a plausible alternative to the president’s plan, especially since the GOP-controlled House has shelved bipartisan immigration legislation. His call echoes those of some of the party’s potential 2016 candidates to reach out to Hispanic voters in some way.

“Just saying ‘let’s repeal this,’ or ‘let’s not fund it’ — if that’s the only reaction, that’s going to antagonize Hispanics,” Aguilar said.

But House Republican aides note that Speaker John Boehner and others have no effective way to tone down comments of members who stridently oppose looser immigration rules. Indeed, many of those members are proud to defy party leaders.

Boehner himself likened Obama’s remarks to playing with matches. “He’s going to burn himself if he continues to go down this path,” Boehner said Thursday, a day after Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell warned the president not to act without congressional approval. Such a move, McConnell said, “poisons the well” for potential bipartisan efforts.

A Congress controlled by the GOP come January “will defend itself and our citizens from these lawless actions,” said Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, adding “Americans do not want their borders erased.”

Aguilar and others are concerned that conservative firebrands will go further in their rhetoric, perhaps by calling for Obama’s impeachment or for mass deportations — creating a political sweet spot for Democrats not long after the Republican triumph at the polls and exposing a rift inside the GOP just as the party assumes control of both chambers.

“Republicans have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot,” said Carlos Gutierrez, a commerce secretary under Bush who led that administration’s failed effort in 2007 to enact comprehensive immigration changes. “The Republicans can overreact and give the impression that they’re not so much against the concept of executive action but that they’re against immigrants. And that would be a big problem.”

Some possible GOP presidential contenders, including Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, have signaled a desire to tackle an overhaul of the nation’s immigration system next year. Others outside Washington, including Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Rick Perry of Texas, have taken measures to appeal to Hispanics, including passing laws that allow some children of immigrants here illegally to pay in-state tuition at public colleges.

And not all Republicans agree that aggressive opposition to an executive action will yield an electoral disaster. Republican consultant Mike McKenna, who conducts polls and focus groups in several states, said that unless the president’s effort is modest, “he’s going to sink the (Democratic) party for 2016.”

Obama faces enormous pressure to act from Latinos, an important part of the Democratic base. Immigrant advocates, labor leaders and others called on the president Thursday to act boldly, and dared Republicans to stand in his way.

“If they come after him,” said AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka, Democrats will say, “Look, the lunatics are already running the asylum.”

Advocates say the White House is weighing actions that would apply to those who meet a certain term of U.S. residency, perhaps 10 years. Also under consideration is whether to include parents of those who received deportation deferrals under Obama, or only parents of children who are U.S. citizens because they were born here.

Hispanic voters were an important part of Obama’s support in his presidential campaigns and are seen as a crucial voting bloc in the years to come. A Republican Party “autopsy” of the 2012 election made only one policy recommendation: The GOP should embrace “comprehensive immigration reform.”

That phrase typically means enhancing border security along with addressing the status of the roughly 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.

But many House Republicans, and some senators, owe their elections largely to GOP primary voters who adamantly oppose any form of legalization.

Exit polls of voters in Tuesday’s midterms found that while 57 percent of Americans favor offering immigrants living here illegally a chance to apply for legal status, the issue splits along party lines: 78 percent of Democratic voters supported providing a way for immigrants to remain in the country, while 56 percent of Republican voters said they should be deported.

Mitt Romney won just 27 percent of the Latino vote in 2012, the worst performance for a GOP nominee in 16 years. Many Republicans attribute it to his hard-line stance on immigration.

Voters “don’t care what you know until they know you really care about them,” said Hector Barreto, who has advised Republican presidential campaigns since 2000. “I don’t see how you go into 2016 and you brag about how great you’re going to be for the Hispanic community and you never did anything on this issue.”

___

Associated Press writer Erica Werner contributed from Washington.

___

Follow Charles Babington on Twitter at —https://twitter.com/cbabington and Michael J. Mishak at —https://twitter.com/mjmishak

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Obama defiant, vows immigration action this year

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s determination to act alone to change the immigration system promptly drove a wedge Wednesday into the post-election commitment from the president and Republican leaders to find common ground under the new political alignment.

Obama defiantly stood by his pledge to act on his own to reduce deportations, grant work permits and improve border security by the end of the year despite resounding election victories by Republicans strongly opposed to his plans. The Senate’s likely majority leader next year, Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., declared that such a move would amount to “waving a red flag in front of a bull.”

On a day when both sides tried to herald a new era of potential compromise, immigration stood out not only as a single obstacle to bipartisanship but as a sign that the hard-fought election and the heavy Democratic losses had not pushed partisan sparring aside.

“I have no doubt that there will be some Republicans who are angered or frustrated by any executive action that I may take,” Obama said in a post-election news conference. “Those are folks, I just have to say, who are also deeply opposed to immigration reform, in any form, and blocked the House from being able to pass a bipartisan bill.”

He cast his executive actions as an inducement for Republicans to pass their own immigration bill.

“The best way, if folks are serious about getting immigration reform done, is going ahead and passing a bill and getting it to my desk. And then the executive actions that I take go away,” he said.

Republicans led by McConnell pledged to use their newfound majorities to stop him.

“I hope he won’t do that, because I do think it poisons the well for the opportunity to address a very important domestic issue,” McConnell said in Louisville, Kentucky, as he celebrated a victory in his own Senate race and the GOP’s capture of the Senate.

Some on the right said executive action on immigration could even be grounds for impeachment. Several House Republicans said Obama would make it very difficult to cooperate on other issues if he acts on immigration.

“Him moving ahead like that, I think he’s completely tone deaf to what happened last night,” said Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn.

But Obama appeared in no mood for waiting. He had already angered Latinos and immigration advocacy groups this fall when he delayed executive action until after the election.

“What I’m not going to do is just wait,” he said. “I think it’s fair to say I’ve shown a lot of patience.”

Immigration advocates made clear that their patience, too, was at an end.

“The election is over. Act boldly to bring relief to the millions facing deportation and family separation,” Janet Murguia, head of National Council of La Raza, said at a news conference Wednesday. “The Hispanic community has waited too long and expects you to fulfill your promise.”

White House officials say Obama, who is traveling to Asia and Australia next week, would not take any action until late November at the earliest and could wait until December.

Advocates in touch with the White House expect Obama to expand a 2-year-old program that deferred deportations for more than 500,000 immigrants brought here illegally as minors, and made them eligible for work permits. He is also expected to take steps to make more business visas available.

Advocates say White House officials are debating whether to require a certain term of residency in the U.S. — say 10 years — and whether eligibility criteria would include the parents of immigrants who received deportation deferrals under Obama, or only people who have children who are U.S. citizens because they were born here.

Such decisions could determine whether the program affects as many as 3 million people or more, or fewer.

In an interview, Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., a leading immigration advocate, said anything fewer than 5 million to 8 million people would be insufficient. He and others argue that Obama’s actions will infuriate Republicans no matter how many are affected.

“Half a loaf is going to be unsatisfactory to everyone,” Gutierrez said.

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Can Obama pass US immigration reform?








Two Hispanic votersHispanic voters want politicians to follow through on their promises

Barack Obama says he will unveil his plan for US immigration reform before the end of the year. But how bold will the president be now that he faces a Republican-controlled Congress?

At the Latin American Youth Center in Washington DC, many voters went to the polls on Tuesday frustrated at the politicians’ failure to reach a deal on immigration reform.

“I am a Latina and I would like to see some help for those who are somehow like me,” said Danubia, an immigrant from El Salvador.

“I hope we will have a noticeable change on immigration, because many people are left without their parents when they are deported,” she told the BBC at the polling station decorated with the colourful flags of Latin America countries.

Danubia is not alone in her worries. According to a poll by the Pew Research Center, two-thirds of Hispanic registered voters in the US say new immigration legislation is either extremely important or very important.

Many members of the community, which overwhelmingly supported Mr Obama in 2008 and 2012, are disillusioned because the president has failed to deliver the comprehensive immigration reform he promised.

They are also unhappy because deportations have increased under the Obama administration, earning him the nickname “deporter-in-chief”.

“I am very disappointed because I voted for him twice and nothing has been done,” said Leticia, a voter of Mexican descent.

Immigration has been a cornerstone of Mr Obama’s domestic agenda ever since he became president, but proposals pushed by the Democratic party have been thwarted by Republicans in the House of Representatives. He has since vowed to change policy unilaterally using executive powers.

Mr Obama was supposed to announce his plans by the end of the summer. But as political pressure grew over Central American migrant children illegally crossing the border from Mexico into the US, he decided to postpone action until after the mid-terms.

Now, with Republicans controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 2006, there are questions about how exactly Mr Obama may try to circumvent Congress – and how Republicans may react.

At a White House press conference on Wednesday, the president confirmed he will announce his executive plan before the next session of Congress begins in January. But he stopped short of giving any details.

Marc Rosenblum, deputy director of the US immigration policy programme at the Migration Policy Institute, believes the Republican gains in the mid-term elections could limit what executive action is taken.


Voters queuing to voteThe Hispanic vote will be more important in the 2016 presidential election

One of the options being discussed is a plan to relieve undocumented immigrants from deportation, he says. That project would be along the lines of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (Daca) programme, the administration’s 2012 decision to suspend deportations of children who arrived in the US at a young age.

Such a decision would probably be met by strong opposition in Congress. Republicans have said DACA is an example of executive overreach, and the House of Representatives has already tried to both block it and prevent President Obama from expanding it.

“Republicans will make efforts to weaken, to undermine, to defund the executive action programme,” says Angela Maria Kelley, vice president of immigration policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank in Washington.

But Ms Kelley admits that there could be another approach, one where Republicans present an immigration bill that would not convince Democrats. It would put the Democrats in the uncomfortable position of having to decide whether they reject it.

“That could erode the negative image Republicans currently have with Latino voters and it would turn the heat on Democrats,” she says.

Ultimately, both parties will also consider the possible effects of any immigration decision on the 2016 presidential election, in which Hispanics are expected to play a much more important role.

For the mid-term elections, the Pew Research Center calculated that Latinos made up only a small share of eligible voters in many battleground states. But their presence is growing at a national level and presidential hopefuls will want to count on Latinos.

“In 2016 there will be a very different election dynamic compared to what we have just seen in 2014,” says Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), a non-governmental organisation in Los Angeles.

But for voters like Danubia or Leticia at the Columbia Heights community centre, 2016 is still far away.

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Immigration Reform In 2015? We Could Use The Money

President Obama would love to have immigration reform as part of his legacy. Republican leaders in Congress want their party to be competitive in the 2016 presidential election and to show they can get things done. So although the odds are odds are steep — especially if the president sparks the indignation of conservative lawmakers and follows through on his promise to take executive action to remove the threat of deportation for millions of undocumented immigrants — our leaders are likely to at least make a serious attempt at putting together a bipartisan, bicameral deal on immigration in 2015. Their starting point will be S.744, the sweeping overhaul of the immigration system approved by the Senate on a 68-32 vote on June 27, 2013.

This wide-ranging reform bill is known mostly for its heightened border security, increased requirements for employers to verify the legal status of employees, and the complete revision of pathways to legal status for both currently undocumented and aspiring future immigrants, particularly those who are highly skilled. With all its focus on hot-button issues, sometimes it is forgotten that S.744 is also major deficit reduction legislation. According to theestimates jointly produced by the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, the bill would generate $158 billion in deficit reduction over 10 years.

Most of the money in the CBO-JCT immigration reform estimate is tax related. The net $158 billion of deficit reduction is a combination of a $456 billion revenue increase offset by $298 billion of increased discretionary spending. (See the figure below.) Refunds of earned income credits, child credits, and premium assistance credits— officially scored as discretionary spending — account for nearly four-fifths of the estimated spending increase.

S. 744 is not so much a tax increase as it is an increase in the number of taxpayers. According to the official estimates, the legislation will make the U.S. population larger by 9.6 million in 2023. The number of residents with legal status will increase by a total of 16.1 million by 2023.

Three broad shifts in population drive these estimates, as shown in the figure below. The first and the largest is the 12.1 million increase in legal immigrants into the United States. The second is the change of 6.5 million currently unauthorized residents to new legal status that would allow them to work in the United States. The third major shift is a 2.4 million reduction in the net annual inflow of future unauthorized residents.

The vast majority of new revenues come from the first category–new entrants into the United States. Not only would there be more new immigrants than newly legalized current residents, but new entrants have higher incomes than currently unauthorized residents. Also, many current unauthorized residents —about 44 percent, according to the Social Security Administration – already pay tax, so from a fiscal perspective there is little gain from their new legal status.

In a new article appearing in the latest issue of Tax Notes, I use two different methods to estimate this distribution of revenue changes attributable to new legal residents and revenue changes attributable to the change in status of unauthorized residents.

The table below summarizes the estimates derived using the two different methods. Using the first method, 86 percent of revenue raised by S.744—excluding the effect of refundable credits–is attributable to new immigrants entering the United States. Using the second method, 94 percent of revenue raised, excluding credit refunds, is from new legal immigrants.

Including the effect of refundable credits in the revenue estimate skews the distribution even further toward new immigrants. Under the first method, they account for 94 percent of the revenue net of refundable credits. Under the second method, they account for more than 100 percent because the increase in currently unauthorized residents filing returns actually reduces revenue.


In their efforts to shrug off arguments that granting legal status to unauthorized immigrants is amnesty, proponents of immigration reform stress that the attainment of legal status would be accompanied by the payment of penalties and back taxes. While the payment of fees and back taxes gets a lot of attention in the political debate, it is not significant for the overall fiscal picture.

The vast majority of fees would be collected from currently unauthorized residents obtaining registered provisional immigrant status (RPI) under S.744. To gain this new legal status, currently unauthorized residents would be required to pay a $1,000 penalty when they apply. In total, this would raise $4.9 billion over 10 years. In addition, RPI applicants would be charged a processing fee of about $750. In the aggregate, these processing fees would raise $3 billion over 10 years. Only $500 million of the new fees and penalties under the bill will not be paid by currently unauthorized residents.

The imposition of $1,750 in penalties and fees per person on a family of low-income unauthorized workers is a large financial burden. It could cause some not to seek legal status even though they meet RPI requirements. And increasing those fees would further reduce the incentive to use the pathways to legal immigration under the bill. But as significant as they may be to the affected individuals, the fees and penalties in S.744 are a small part of the overall fiscal impact of the bill on the federal government. Compared with new taxes generated by S. 744 -— over $45 billion net of tax credits in 2023 — aggregate new fees and penalties from the bill are relatively small, at less than $1 billion. And even though these fees are mostly paid by currently unauthorized residents gaining legal status, they do not significantly change the estimates of the distribution of the government receipts under the bill, as shown in the table above.

The payment of back taxes has an even smaller fiscal impact than the payment of fees. Under S.744, an unauthorized resident may not file an application for RPI status unless the applicant has satisfied all federal tax liabilities assessed by the IRS. The critical factor here is that the RPI applicant is not required to pay all taxes legally owed, just delinquent taxes that are on the IRS radar. These assessed liabilities are amounts shown as due on a tax return and amounts assessed under a deficiency notice.

It would be very difficult for the IRS to collect back taxes from millions of currently unauthorized immigrants who worked in the underground economy or who worked in the aboveground economy with phony or stolen Social Security numbers. A CBO-JCT explanation of its estimates states that only unauthorized residents who filed tax returns using individual tax identification numbers (ITINs) could be matched to make assessments. ITINs are issued by the IRS to those who have filing obligations but are not eligible to receive Social Security numbers.

If their employers withheld income tax and they subsequently filed returns, not only would many of these RPI applicants have no further income tax obligation, they might also be due refunds. Given low audit rates generally, the chances of any unauthorized immigrant with tax due being assessed are low. And as a CBO-JCT explanationpoints out, “those with unpaid assessments—and particularly those with large unpaid assessments—would be less likely to apply [for RPI status].” Given all this, it seems that congressional scorekeepers expect the IRS to collect next to nothing extra from unauthorized residents as a result of the back taxes provision of the bill.

As Congress struggles to fix our broken immigration system, it is likely to consider many variations of S.744 and its components. Those proposals that allow a large influx of new legal immigrants—particularly immigrants with high skills—will significantly increase tax revenue. Providing new legal status for current unauthorized immigrants will not.

Source Article from http://www.forbes.com/sites/taxanalysts/2014/11/05/immigration-reform-in-2015-we-could-use-the-money/?ss=business
Immigration Reform In 2015? We Could Use The Money
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Obama on Immigration: How He Could Foul It Up

Several months ago, President Obama postponed his promised executive action on immigration reform until after the midterm election. It was a concession to endangered Democratic senators who feared the president’s action would prompt a backlash against them in their states.

The executive action had been widely expected to scale back the deportation of millions of illegal immigrants and their children—including the thousands that recently came from Central America—and possibly offer work permits to people living in the U.S. illegally. The delay of executive action that Obama had promised back in June angered and alienated many Hispanic voters and action.

Related: GOP Wave Election Leaves Obama Friendless in D.C.

In the end, that strategy did nothing to save the Democrats from a Republican tidal wave on Tuesday that swept away at least seven Democratic senators and gave the GOP its first majority in the Senate since 2006.

Now Obama must decide whether to move ahead with his unilateral action by the end of the year or wait even longer in hopes of negotiating a compromise with the new Republican leadership over comprehensive immigration reform.

The president may signal his intentions in a post-election White House news conference later today in which he tries to put a positive spin on the Democrats’ disastrous showing at the polls. Obama has also invited Republican and Democratic congressional leaders to the White House on Friday to begin negotiating for a critical post-election session of Congress that must resolve a raft of unfinished business.

That unfinished business includes approving a new budget, debating new war powers language for the president in his battle with ISIS, disposing of judicial nominations and deciding whether to move ahead with a nomination to replace retiring Attorney General Eric Holder.

Related: The Senate Baton Passes to McConnell and the GOP

Hispanic activists said today that new polling shows that the delay of the executive action may have hurt Democratic candidates in several key races – including Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who was defeated by Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in a state with a substantial Latino population. Among Latino voters who didn’t vote Tuesday, 60 percent said in the new survey that Obama’s delay in issuing the executive order made them less enthusiastic about Democratic candidates.

“We have for the first time some evidence” Obama’s decision hurt his party at the polls yesterday, said Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, the polling firm that did the survey for America’s Voice, an immigration reform advocacy group.

Related: A GOP Congress Will Face 12 Million Pleas for Immigration Reform   

Frank Sharry, executive director of the liberal America’s Voice, said in an analysis of the new survey that Obama and the Democrats “need to lean into immigration” ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign and reject GOP “hype” that Republicans are ready to tackle immigration reform legislation.

“The GOP hopes to try to intimidate the president against acting,” he added, and said Republicans intend to continue to block congressional action on comprehensive immigration reform “in hopes of depressing Latino turnout in 2016.”

Sharry may think the GOP is inventing an immigration crisis where none exists, but polls by Huffington Post, Gallup and a host of others show that a plurality of Americans do not want amnesty for illegals.

During a news conference in Louisville this afternoon, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said that it would be a serious mistake for Obama to issue the executive order rather than negotiating an immigration deal with the new GOP majority.

“It’s an issue that most of our members want to address legislatively, and it’s like waving a red flag in front of a bull, to say that if you guys don’t do what I want, I’m going to do it on my own,” he said.

Other GOP analysts are warning that Obama would dash any hope of bipartisan cooperation if he moves ahead with the executive order. Ari Fleischer, former Republican President George W. Bush’s press secretary, said this morning on CNN that unilateral action by Obama on immigration reform – including granting amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants and their children – would infuriate the new GOP majority. “He will ruin and poison the next two years,” Fleischer said.

Related: Election 2014 – How the Polls and Forecasters Failed

White House officials are considering two central criteria for determining deferred deportation for unauthorized immigrants, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. Those are the length of stay in the U.S. and family ties in the country. Undocumented parents of U.S. citizens, and potentially parents of those who arrived in the U.S. as children and were granted temporary relief, might qualify for protection if they meet a number of other criteria, said The Journal.

Depending on the language, this executive action could protect between one million and four million illegal immigrants. That would do far more than the administration’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals executive order that was promulgated in 2012. So far it’s provided temporary protection from deportation for about 500,000 immigrants who arrived here as children.

Top Reads from The Fiscal Times:

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Immigration's Inconvenient Truth? UCL Study Says Nothing About UK Immigration and Low Pay

Yet another academic report, this time by University College London, concludes that European migrants to the UK pay more in to the system than they take out in welfare and public services.

But far from being the final word on the immigration debate, it will have little or no impact on wider public opinion about the controversial issue.

Those who feel as though they see no tangible benefits of migration – even if they are broadly better off because of it – are often the low paid, for who the news will be little consolation.

They look at their own situations – little or no work, bad pay, zero hour contracts, welfare cuts – and feel they lose out from migration. That jobs are taken and pay is held down by migrants willing to work longer, harder and for less than the natives, especially in low-skilled work.

The latest UCL study, conducted by its Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (Cream), found that European migrants to the UK in the years between 2000 and 2011 paid in £20bn (€25.5bn, $31.9bn) into the system.

Over the same period, migrants from the 15 wealthiest EU countries, such as France and Germany, paid 64% more into the UK system than they took out.

And those from the A-10 countries – the poorer eastern European states who joined the EU later and are at the centre of the debate around UK immigration – paid in 12% more than they extracted in public services.

This effectively means that EU migrants subsidise public services for UK citizens. And, by spending their money in the UK economy, they help to create more jobs and revenue for the Treasury.

‘No argument’

Clustered in deprived towns and cities with large growing migrant populations, poorer Britons see this immigration first hand and draw flawed conclusions based on the fallacy that correlation equals causation: there has been an increase in immigration, we are becoming worse off, therefore immigration is making us worse off.

So it is no surprise that polling should show around three quarters of Britons want to cut the number of immigrants in the country. According to a YouGov poll in August 2014, 56% of Britons said immigration was the biggest issue facing the country. Behind it came the economy.

This feeling that the poor, low-skilled Britons are losing out economically is compounded by the emotional sense of loss in reaction to a rapid change in the demography and culture of many local communities.

It has powered the surge in the popularity of Ukip, a populist eurosceptic party which argues there are too many immigrants in Britain and wants to leave the EU because of its free movement of labour policy.

Cold statistics showing that European migrants contribute more than they take out of the economy will not change many Ukip-leaning minds. Especially when they are pitched against rhetoric.

“There is no question that it’s pushed wage inflation down,” said Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, in a fiery speech. “It’s helped big companies and big corporations and big landowners to make bigger profits – no argument about that.”

There is some research suggesting the lowest paid have had their wages pushed down by immigration.

A previous study in 2013 by UCL’s Cream found that for every 1% rise in the share of migrants in the UK-born working age population, there was 0.6% trimmed off the wages of the bottom 5% of earners and a 0.4% fall for the lowest 10%.

Another piece of research by the Special Economics Research Centre found that native unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK saw a 0.5% fall in their pay as a consequence of immigration.

“Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector, where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 5 percent reduction in pay,” said the 2008 study, called The Impact of Immigration on Occupational Wages: Evidence from Britain.

Yet these studies also show that the wages of the higher paid are slightly increased by immigration. On average, there is a small uplift in the wages of native British workers from immigration.

Distraction

Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said the evidence on migration and pay is tentative, dated and incomplete. We need more of it before drawing any concrete conclusions. And in any case, it is not the most important factor in low pay.

“Any impact at the lower end is pretty small compared to all the other things going on, like the National Minimum Wage and other changes to the labour market,” Portes said.

“It’s certainly not the main thing, or one of the main things, responsible for downward wage pressure according to the evidence we’ve seen so far. But it’s also fair to say that we could use some better and more up to date evidence.

“There’s quite good evidence on unemployment and employment, which says that there is basically no impact. But the evidence on wages is less strong so far.”

Instead, policymakers should focus on tackling education problems, skills shortages, training and making young British people more competitive in a modern, globalised labour market.

“All those issues have been structural problems with the labour market for some time. They haven’t gone away,” Portes said.

“They were present before we had large-scale immigration from eastern Europe and they’d still be present if we didn’t have large-scale immigration from eastern Europe. So we know where the problems are, we’ve just got to get on and solve them.

“People who talk about immigration as being either the problem or the solution with respect to low pay are trying to distract attention from the real questions.”

Related articles : UK Economy: EU Immigrants Contributed More Than They Took Out in Benefits

Immigration’s Inconvenient Truth? UCL Study Says Nothing About UK Immigration and Low Pay

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Immigration's Inconvenient Truth? UCL Study Says Nothing About UK Immigration and Low Pay

Yet another academic report, this time by University College London, concludes that European migrants to the UK pay more in to the system than they take out in welfare and public services.

But far from being the final word on the immigration debate, it will have little or no impact on wider public opinion about the controversial issue.

Those who feel as though they see no tangible benefits of migration – even if they are broadly better off because of it – are often the low paid, for who the news will be little consolation.

They look at their own situations – little or no work, bad pay, zero hour contracts, welfare cuts – and feel they lose out from migration. That jobs are taken and pay is held down by migrants willing to work longer, harder and for less than the natives, especially in low-skilled work.

The latest UCL study, conducted by its Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (Cream), found that European migrants to the UK in the years between 2000 and 2011 paid in £20bn (€25.5bn, $31.9bn) into the system.

Over the same period, migrants from the 15 wealthiest EU countries, such as France and Germany, paid 64% more into the UK system than they took out.

And those from the A-10 countries – the poorer eastern European states who joined the EU later and are at the centre of the debate around UK immigration – paid in 12% more than they extracted in public services.

This effectively means that EU migrants subsidise public services for UK citizens. And, by spending their money in the UK economy, they help to create more jobs and revenue for the Treasury.

‘No argument’

Clustered in deprived towns and cities with large growing migrant populations, poorer Britons see this immigration first hand and draw flawed conclusions based on the fallacy that correlation equals causation: there has been an increase in immigration, we are becoming worse off, therefore immigration is making us worse off.

So it is no surprise that polling should show around three quarters of Britons want to cut the number of immigrants in the country. According to a YouGov poll in August 2014, 56% of Britons said immigration was the biggest issue facing the country. Behind it came the economy.

This feeling that the poor, low-skilled Britons are losing out economically is compounded by the emotional sense of loss in reaction to a rapid change in the demography and culture of many local communities.

It has powered the surge in the popularity of Ukip, a populist eurosceptic party which argues there are too many immigrants in Britain and wants to leave the EU because of its free movement of labour policy.

Cold statistics showing that European migrants contribute more than they take out of the economy will not change many Ukip-leaning minds. Especially when they are pitched against rhetoric.

“There is no question that it’s pushed wage inflation down,” said Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, in a fiery speech. “It’s helped big companies and big corporations and big landowners to make bigger profits – no argument about that.”

There is some research suggesting the lowest paid have had their wages pushed down by immigration.

A previous study in 2013 by UCL’s Cream found that for every 1% rise in the share of migrants in the UK-born working age population, there was 0.6% trimmed off the wages of the bottom 5% of earners and a 0.4% fall for the lowest 10%.

Another piece of research by the Special Economics Research Centre found that native unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK saw a 0.5% fall in their pay as a consequence of immigration.

“Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector, where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 5 percent reduction in pay,” said the 2008 study, called The Impact of Immigration on Occupational Wages: Evidence from Britain.

Yet these studies also show that the wages of the higher paid are slightly increased by immigration. On average, there is a small uplift in the wages of native British workers from immigration.

Distraction

Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said the evidence on migration and pay is tentative, dated and incomplete. We need more of it before drawing any concrete conclusions. And in any case, it is not the most important factor in low pay.

“Any impact at the lower end is pretty small compared to all the other things going on, like the National Minimum Wage and other changes to the labour market,” Portes said.

“It’s certainly not the main thing, or one of the main things, responsible for downward wage pressure according to the evidence we’ve seen so far. But it’s also fair to say that we could use some better and more up to date evidence.

“There’s quite good evidence on unemployment and employment, which says that there is basically no impact. But the evidence on wages is less strong so far.”

Instead, policymakers should focus on tackling education problems, skills shortages, training and making young British people more competitive in a modern, globalised labour market.

“All those issues have been structural problems with the labour market for some time. They haven’t gone away,” Portes said.

“They were present before we had large-scale immigration from eastern Europe and they’d still be present if we didn’t have large-scale immigration from eastern Europe. So we know where the problems are, we’ve just got to get on and solve them.

“People who talk about immigration as being either the problem or the solution with respect to low pay are trying to distract attention from the real questions.”

Related articles : UK Economy: EU Immigrants Contributed More Than They Took Out in Benefits

Immigration’s Inconvenient Truth? UCL Study Says Nothing About UK Immigration and Low Pay

Source Article from http://uk.news.yahoo.com/immigrations-inconvenient-truth-ucl-study-says-nothing-uk-131728524–finance.html
Immigration's Inconvenient Truth? UCL Study Says Nothing About UK Immigration and Low Pay
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